#191 Now That The Fruit Has "Set," We Can Assess the Damage from the Early Frost

We knew we had "bud damage." Now we can count clusters.

Around now, each vine has progressed to the stage of “fruit set.” We can see how many clusters it has produced and how many berries are fully-formed in each cluster. By simply inspecting each vine visually and based on our experience, we can estimate whether the amount of fruit is typical for each variety.

We have a rough idea each year of how much fruit we need to produce the wine that we are likely to sell in the next twelve months. But that is not enough. We have to break it down further into: “How much Riesling?” “How much Cab Franc?” “How much Rosé?”

That is just the start.

Then you have to ask, “How much inventory do I have on hand for each product from prior vintages?” For each one of the wines we sell, we have to estimate, “Just how much fruit from the 2026 harvest do we need?” Do we have too much inventory? Not enough. Or just right.

This is why the “fruit estimate” that we make around this time of the year matters. (See Substack #93).

This year, though, the fruit estimate is especially difficult. The frost on April 21 damaged some vines and left others unscathed. The effects seemed random. In the picture below, on the left a Riesling vine has a typical number of clusters. On the right, the vine adjacent to it has produced very few clusters.

The clusters that we count are typically near to the “fruiting cane,” which is wrapped around the “fruiting wire.” You can see them on the vine to the left. If you look at the fruiting cane on the vine to the , right it is very hard to find any clusters. The two vines are adjacent to each other. There does not seem to be any logic to it. That is what makes the crop estimate difficult.

The number of clusters that you may find on the fruiting cane also depends upon the variety. Below, is a Cabernet Sauvignon vine. It is considered a later ripening variety, and it also gets a later start in the spring. At the time of the April 21 frost, its buds had barely emerged and were less susceptible to the cold. Below, you can see that the Cab Sauv has a very healthy set of clusters. Most of the Cab Sauv vines look just like this one, with plenty of fruit.

This photo of the Cabernet Sauvignon clusters was taken on the same day at the photos of the Riesling clusters. The two varieties are at quite a different stage of growth.

Cabernet Sauvignon is a later-starting and late-ripening grape variety. On the other hand, Gewürztraminer is the opposite. It is also very cold-sensitive. The vine in the photo below has maybe one or two clusters—in total—on it. Fortunately, it is still very healthy and will be very productive next year. Just not this year.

We have three acres of Gewürztraminer vines. They have produced as much as a total of 20 tons in a given year. This year, they may produce five tons. In this situation, we will purchase additional Gewürztraminer fruit from Sheldrake Point Vineyards as we have in the past.

So, the question still remains; how much fruit will we really have? Particularly, how much Riesling and Cab Franc. These are our two most popular wines. We don’t want to run out, but we also do not want to sacrifice quality by buying grapes from a grower we haven’t worked with before. Because of the frost, certain varieties will be in short supply this year.

We are all still waiting to see what we will need after we have finished the busy summer tasting season. When we start harvesting, it will be come clearer just how much fruit we have. It is way too difficult to estimate it precisely right now.